Editor's note: The subject of the annual Dick
Crews Debate at the January, 2008 Roundtable meeting was: "The Southern
Victory of 1865: Was the Confederacy a Viable State?" Five
members made presentations on the topic; the article below was one
of those five presentations.
For purposes of this debate, I have
assumed that the Confederacy survived the Civil War as an intact
sovereign nation. This may have occurred in a number of ways:
through victory on the battlefield, as the result of some domestic
calamity or due to the intervention of a foreign power. In any case,
it is my position that with the conclusion of hostilities, the
Confederate States of America would have not only survived but
thrived as an independent republic.
Any analysis must begin by
considering the territorial size and likely borders of the two
neighboring American states. Although the United States was much
larger, the Confederate States of America was comprised of a great
deal of valuable property in terms of the resources which could be
grown upon and extracted from the land. From the standpoint of
organization, the Confederate States had also established all of the
bureaucracy necessary to manage and efficiently govern the country.
The social fabric and institutions
of the South were very strong, perhaps even stronger than in the
North. The Confederates also had the political experience necessary
to adapt to any changes the future might bring. The Confederate
Constitution looked very much like the Constitution of the United
States. The governance of the nation would be conducted by educated
leaders with means that had proved successful in the North. The only
question remaining is whether the Confederate States of America
would have enjoyed the economic fortunes necessary to thrive as a
nation. Clearly, it would have.
Please consider the following
facts:
-
The
South was a wealthy land, due primarily to its cotton production.
In 1860, cotton comprised two-thirds of all United States exports,
and this cotton was produced by slaves. Thirty-eight percent of
the population of the South was slaves. 400,000 slave owners held
more than 4 million slaves. The Southern economy prospered on the
ability of its slaves to produce cotton more efficiently than any
other region in the world. Clearly, cotton was king in the Land of
Dixie.
-
The
economy of the South did not suffer from sectional divisiveness.
There was economic and political cohesion in the South, unlike
that seen in the northern and western states. Less than 7% of the
population lived in towns or cities having a population of over
2,500. In other words, 93% of all Southerners lived in small
towns. Southern cities did not drain the countryside of their
resources. As slavery would have continued, share cropping would
not have occurred. There would have been no need to offer cheap
land in small parcels to pioneering families in order to maintain
economic vitality. Southerners required few government sponsored
improvements in transportation, like the construction of the Erie
Canal in the North. There was far less pressure upon the
Confederate government to maintain economic stability when
compared with circumstances in the North.
-
With the
end of the war, the Naval blockade of the South would have been
lifted, and trade with other countries would have resumed and then
grown exponentially. During the war, the European powers favored
the Confederacy over the United State and these countries would
have imported far more from the South after the war ended.
Britain, who had lost two wars against the United States, feared
an American invasion of Canada. France, which already had
relations in Louisiana, had thoughts of taking over Mexico. Both
of these countries would have willingly supported the Southern
economy to the detriment of the North. A modest export tax on
cotton in the South could have generated huge revenue for the
Confederate government. The rampant inflation which occurred in
the South after the war would have quickly abated. With a dramatic
rise in exports, the South would have been easily able to rebuild
its infrastructure. The Confederate government would have
prospered by the resumption of business as usual.
-
The inevitable discovery of oil
in the west would have generated immense profits for Southern
landowners and, in turn, the Confederate economy. Consider the
reserves of oil in Oklahoma and Texas still in production today.
With the central government being subject to far less pressures
that its northern counterpart, economic cooperation could have
produced fantastic awards for the southern economy. Industrialists
and venture capitalists would have flocked to the South. Growth
seen in cities like Cleveland and Chicago would have also occurred
in Mobile and Houston. Some of the automobile companies that
flourished in Indiana and Ohio during the early 1900s could have
certainly found their way south. Atlanta would have likely
surpassed Detroit as the automobile capital in North America. The
economy of the Confederate States of America would have been
rewarded accordingly.
As the South would have enjoyed
great economic fortune, political stability would have followed. I
submit that North America would now be comprised of two independent
republics, each engaged in trading their goods with the rest of the
world while remaining a proudly sovereign nation.
CONTINUE
ONTO THE FOURTH ARGUMENT>> |
Debate Home
Page
Opening Remarks
The CSA Was NOT Viable
A
Captain-Less Raft Floating On a Sea of Problems
Too Small
for a Republic, Too Large for a Lunatic Asylum
The CSA WAS Viable
The Myth
of a Weak Confederacy
Follow
the Money
The
Second Shot Heard 'Round the World
|
